Field notes The Energy Transition for the Rest of Us

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China

28 notes · Catalyst 18 · Critical Capital 4 · Steel For Fuel 6

  1. Critical Capital · 4 Aug 2026 Thom Tillis on energy, China, and leaving the Senate with Thom Tillis, United States Senator (Republican, North Carolina), not seeking re-election; formerly speaker in the North Carolina legislature and a partner at Price Waterhouse Why can’t the United States hold an energy policy together across a change of administration, and what would it take to build one that survives?
  2. Catalyst · 11 Jun 2026 How China is reshaping the global auto market with Michael Dunne, CEO, Dunne Insights China now exports more cars than any country ever has, to everywhere except the United States. What is actually driving that, and is the American wall real protection or just delay?
  3. Critical Capital · 9 Jun 2026 The US-China rivalry runs through energy and minerals with Graham Allison, Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at Harvard University, founding dean of the Harvard Kennedy School, author of Destined for War Can the United States and China keep competing without sliding into war?
  4. Catalyst · 4 Jun 2026 Surprising trends in global electricity generation with Nic Fulghum, senior energy and climate data analyst, Ember, and co-author of the Global Electricity Review What actually happened to global electricity generation in 2025, and where does the data contradict the story people are telling about it?
  5. Catalyst · 14 May 2026 Inside the global fertilizer crunch with Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer, StoneX The Strait of Hormuz has been shut for about ten weeks. What is that doing to the global fertilizer market, and when does it turn into a food problem?
  6. Critical Capital · 7 May 2026 Can US industrial trade policy stay on course? with Sarah Bianchi, senior managing director and chief strategist of international political affairs and public policy, Evercore; previously Deputy US Trade Representative, responsible for Asia, Africa, the energy transition and critical minerals Now that both parties agree the United States should build more at home, can trade and industrial policy hold a course steady enough for investors to put money behind it?
  7. Critical Capital · 28 Apr 2026 Atoms, bits, and the trillion-dollar manufacturing race with Aidan Madigan-Curtis, partner, Eclipse Ventures; previously at Apple, then five or six years at Samsara Who wins when the digital economy runs into the physical one, and what would the United States have to do to compete again at making, powering and moving things?
  8. Catalyst · 19 Mar 2026 Scaling America’s domestic solar supply chain with Scott Moskowitz, VP of market strategy and public affairs, Qcells; board chair, Solar Energy Industries Association The US has reshored solar module assembly. Can it build the rest of the supply chain, and what is actually stopping it?
  9. Catalyst · 22 Jan 2026 More 2026 trends: Solar costs, oil oversupply, and the startup slump with Nat Bullard, climate tech analyst and writer; co-founder, Halcyon Once you step away from data centers, what do the data actually say about where energy and decarbonization stood going into 2026?
  10. Catalyst · 15 Jan 2026 2026 trends: Gas turbines, Texas’ load queue, and China electrifies with Nat Bullard, co-founder, Halcyon; energy and climate analyst and writer There isn’t one. This is the annual walk through Bullard’s 200-slide data deck, part one of two, with Kann picking favorite slides rather than building a thesis. The loose through-line: how much new demand is coming, and is anyone positioned to serve it?
  11. Catalyst · 14 Aug 2025 The case for sodium-ion with Landon Mossburg, founder and CEO, Peak Energy Sodium-ion cells still cost more per kilowatt-hour than the lithium chemistry that dominates grid storage. So what is the bullish case for building grid batteries out of them?
  12. Steel For Fuel · 7 Jul 2025 The EV revolution will NOT be subsidized by Andy Lubershane, Partner and Head of Research, Energy Impact Partners If the United States withdraws its electric-vehicle subsidies and mandates, does the transition to electric cars stall?
  13. Catalyst · 24 Apr 2025 The geopolitics of rare earth elements with Ahmad Ghahreman, co-founder and CEO, Cyclic Materials China controls the rare earth supply chain more completely than any other critical mineral, and has started using that control as leverage. Can a supply chain be built outside it?
  14. Catalyst · 20 Feb 2025 The promise and perils of sodium-ion batteries with Adrian Yao, founder of the STEER battery research program at Stanford; board member and former co-founder and chief technology officer of the lithium-ion manufacturer EnPower What would it actually take for sodium-ion batteries to beat lithium-ion on cost?
  15. Steel For Fuel · 9 Feb 2025 A tale of two energy superpowers by Andy Lubershane, Partner and Head of Research, Energy Impact Partners Will geopolitics, and specifically conflict between the United States and China, derail the energy transition?
  16. Catalyst · 6 Feb 2025 Catalyst: 2025 Climate Tech Trends with Nat Bullard, co-founder, Halcyon; former chief content officer, BloombergNEF Entering 2025, what do the underlying data actually show about where energy and climate stand, and does a sudden jump in AI model efficiency break the load-growth story?
  17. Steel For Fuel · 31 Jan 2025 Is Sodium the new Lithium (ion)? by Andy Lubershane, Partner and Head of Research, Energy Impact Partners Is sodium-ion about to displace lithium-ion?
  18. Catalyst · 30 Jan 2025 2025 trends: aerosols, oil demand, and carbon removal with Nat Bullard, co-founder, Halcyon (an AI company), and former chief content officer, Bloomberg New Energy Finance What do the data actually say about where energy and climate stood entering 2025?
  19. Catalyst · 6 Jan 2025 Lithium’s wild ride with Ernest Scheyder, senior correspondent, Reuters, and author of The War Below Lithium prices rose steeply and then crashed. What actually caused each half of that, and what decides where the market goes next?
  20. Catalyst · 12 Dec 2024 What happened at Northvolt? with Sam Jaffe, principal, 1019 Technologies Northvolt raised more money than almost any private company in Europe to become its homegrown answer to the Asian battery giants, then filed for bankruptcy. What actually went wrong, and what is the right lesson to draw?
  21. Steel For Fuel · 9 Dec 2024 The geopolitics of electrification by Andy Lubershane, Partner and Head of Research, Energy Impact Partners What does China’s rise to top passenger-vehicle exporter mean for energy geopolitics?
  22. Catalyst · 10 Oct 2024 Unpacking China’s cheap battery costs with James Frith, principal, Volta Energy Technologies How much cheaper is it really to manufacture battery cells in China than in the West, and what actually explains the gap?
  23. Steel For Fuel · 7 Aug 2024 Batteries all the way down by Andy Lubershane, Partner and Head of Research, Energy Impact Partners What does a Chinese battery cell price this low mean for everyone else?
  24. Catalyst · 20 Jun 2024 Demystifying the Chinese EV market with TP Huang, pseudonymous writer covering Chinese electric vehicles, clean energy and technology on Substack What is actually going on inside China’s electric vehicle market: what drove the sudden acceleration, who is winning, and is the export threat the one Western tariffs are aimed at?
  25. Catalyst · 26 Apr 2024 Building a supply chain for rare earth elements with Ahmad Ghahreman, CEO and co-founder, Cyclic Materials What would it actually take to build a rare earth element supply chain outside China?
  26. Catalyst · 1 Feb 2024 What’s really happening in the US EV market? with Corey Cantor, senior associate and EV analyst, BloombergNEF Mainstream coverage says the US electric vehicle market is losing momentum while sales are growing fast. Which is it, and what is actually going on?
  27. Catalyst · 7 Dec 2023 Update: What the new Treasury rules mean for EV supply chains with Sam Jaffe, senior director of business development, Addionics Now that Treasury has defined what counts as a “foreign entity of concern,” can an electric vehicle built on today’s battery supply chain still qualify for the $7,500 tax credit?
  28. Steel For Fuel · 25 Apr 2023 Will the EV supply chain hold? by Andy Lubershane, Partner and Head of Research, Energy Impact Partners Will the mineral and manufacturing supply chain behind electric vehicles keep up with the demand the energy transition places on it?